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10 verites sur l Iran: Medias sioniste Vs la reaite

Belief: Iran is aggressive and has threatened to attack Israel, its
neighbors or the US

Reality: Iran has not launched an aggressive war in modern history
(unlike the US or Israel), and its leaders have a doctrine of “no
first strike.” This is true of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as
of Revolutionary Guards commanders.

Belief: Iran is a militarized society bristling with dangerous weapons
and a growing threat to world peace.

Reality: Iran’s military budget is a little over $6 billion annually.
Sweden, Singapore and Greece all have larger military budgets.
Moreover, Iran is a country of 70 million, so that its per capita
spending on defense is tiny compared to these others, since they are
much smaller countries with regard to population. Iran spends less per
capita on its military than any other country in the Persian Gulf
region with the exception of the United Arab Emirates.

Belief: Iran has threatened to attack Israel militarily and to “wipe
it off the map.”

Reality: No Iranian leader in the executive has threatened an
aggressive act of war on Israel, since this would contradict the
doctrine of ‘no first strike’ to which the country has adhered. The
Iranian president has explicitly said that Iran is not a threat to any
country, including Israel.

Belief: But didn’t President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threaten to ‘wipe
Israel off the map?’

Reality: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did quote Ayatollah Khomeini to
the effect that “this Occupation regime over Jerusalem must vanish
from the page of time” (in rezhim-e eshghalgar-i Qods bayad as safheh-
e ruzgar mahv shavad). This was not a pledge to roll tanks and invade
or to launch missiles, however. It is the expression of a hope that
the regime will collapse, just as the Soviet Union did. It is not a
threat to kill anyone at all.

Belief: But aren’t Iranians Holocaust deniers?

Actuality: Some are, some aren’t. Former president Mohammad Khatami
has castigated Ahmadinejad for questioning the full extent of the
Holocaust, which he called “the crime of Nazism.” Many educated
Iranians in the regime are perfectly aware of the horrors of the
Holocaust. In any case, despite what propagandists imply, neither
Holocaust denial (as wicked as that is) nor calling Israel names is
the same thing as pledging to attack it militarily.

Belief: Iran is like North Korea in having an active nuclear weapons
program, and is the same sort of threat to the world.

Actuality: Iran has a nuclear enrichment site at Natanz near Isfahan
where it says it is trying to produce fuel for future civilian nuclear
reactors to generate electricity. All Iranian leaders deny that this
site is for weapons production, and the International Atomic Energy
Agency has repeatedly inspected it and found no weapons program. Iran
is not being completely transparent, generating some doubts, but all
the evidence the IAEA and the CIA can gather points to there not being
a weapons program. The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate by 16 US
intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the Defense Intelligence
Agency, assessed with fair confidence that Iran has no nuclear weapons
research program. This assessment was based on debriefings of
defecting nuclear scientists, as well as on the documents they brought
out, in addition to US signals intelligence from Iran. While Germany,
Israel and recently the UK intelligence is more suspicious of Iranian
intentions, all of them were badly wrong about Iraq’s alleged Weapons
of Mass Destruction and Germany in particular was taken in by
Curveball, a drunk Iraqi braggart.

Belief: The West recently discovered a secret Iranian nuclear weapons
plant in a mountain near Qom.

Actuality: Iran announced Monday a week ago to the International
Atomic Energy Agency that it had begun work on a second, civilian
nuclear enrichment facility near Qom. There are no nuclear materials
at the site and it has not gone hot, so technically Iran is not in
violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, though it did break
its word to the IAEA that it would immediately inform the UN of any
work on a new facility. Iran has pledged to allow the site to be
inspected regularly by the IAEA, and if it honors the pledge, as it
largely has at the Natanz plant, then Iran cannot produce nuclear
weapons at the site, since that would be detected by the inspectors.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton admitted on Sunday that Iran could
not produce nuclear weapons at Natanz precisely because it is being
inspected. Yet American hawks have repeatedly demanded a strike on
Natanz.

Belief: The world should sanction Iran not only because of its nuclear
enrichment research program but also because the current regime stole
June’s presidential election and brutally repressed the subsequent
demonstrations.

Actuality: Iran’s reform movement is dead set against increased
sanctions on Iran, which likely would not affect the regime, and would
harm ordinary Iranians.

Belief: Isn’t the Iranian regime irrational and crazed, so that a
doctrine of mutally assured destruction just would not work with them?

Actuality: Iranian politicians are rational actors. If they were
madmen, why haven’t they invaded any of their neighbors? Saddam
Hussein of Iraq invaded both Iran and Kuwait. Israel invaded its
neighbors more than once. In contrast, Iran has not started any wars.
Demonizing people by calling them unbalanced is an old propaganda
trick. The US elite was once unalterably opposed to China having
nuclear science because they believed the Chinese are intrinsically
irrational. This kind of talk is a form of racism.

Belief: The international community would not have put sanctions on
Iran, and would not be so worried, if it were not a gathering nuclear
threat.

Actuality: The centrifuge technology that Iran is using to enrich
uranium is open-ended. In the old days, you could tell which countries
might want a nuclear bomb by whether they were building light water
reactors (unsuitable for bomb-making) or heavy-water reactors (could
be used to make a bomb). But with centrifuges, once you can enrich to
5% to fuel a civilian reactor, you could theoretically feed the
material back through many times and enrich to 90% for a bomb.
However, as long as centrifuge plants are being actively inspected,
they cannot be used to make a bomb. The two danger signals would be if
Iran threw out the inspectors or if it found a way to create a secret
facility. The latter task would be extremely difficult, however, as
demonstrated by the CIA’s discovery of the Qom facility construction
in 2006 from satellite photos. Nuclear installations, especially
centrifuge ones, consume a great deal of water, construction materiel,
and so forth, so that constructing one in secret is a tall order. In
any case, you can’t attack and destroy a country because you have an
intuition that they might be doing something illegal. You need some
kind of proof. Moreover, Israel, Pakistan and India are all much worse
citizens of the globe than Iran, since they refused to sign the NPT
and then went for broke to get a bomb; and nothing at all has been
done to any of them by the UNSC.

http://www.juancole.com/2009/10/top-things-you-think-you-know-about.html

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